The Commission's proposal

The European Commission proposes that 30% of the revenue from selling EU carbon allowances under the Emissions Trading System (ETS), now paid into national budgets, should flow into the common EU budget. The Commission estimates the new source would bring an average of 9.6 billion euros a year between 2028 and 2034. Poland currently earns about 3.8 billion euros a year from allowance auctions, so sending 30% of that would cost it roughly 1.14 billion euros annually, according to the figures cited in the reporting. The Commission's overall proposal sets the budget at 1.76 trillion euros, nominally about two-thirds more than in 2021-2027, although the reporting notes that Poland would not automatically receive more.

Warsaw's objection

Poland officially opposes the idea and says so in documents presented to parliament and at meetings of EU ambassadors and ministers. According to unofficial information obtained by RMF FM, Warsaw would not back the proposal even if its conditions were softened, and a Polish diplomat told the station that a failure to agree could block the whole budget. On Saturday, 10 October, the Irish presidency proposed phasing in the full 30% rate for states that use the Modernisation Fund, which supports the energy transition, but Poland does not accept that compromise. Deputy foreign minister Ignacy Niemczycki told RMF FM that the mechanism could weigh relatively more heavily on less wealthy states that already carry high energy transition costs.

We do not want ETS revenues to flow into the EU budget.

What Poland's position rests on

Indirect ETS costs make up about 16% of the final household electricity bill, according to figures cited by RMF FM. Poland backs a border charge that accounts for CO2 emissions and is interested in contributions from large companies. It objects to a levy on uncollected electronic waste and to part of the proposal on tobacco excise revenue. The government points to the large share of coal in domestic power generation and to the costs of the energy transition as reasons for its stance.

Ratification and the presidency

New EU own resources require the unanimous agreement of member states. In Poland, ratification also needs parliamentary consent and the signature of President Karol Nawrocki, who criticizes the ETS and favours starting a process to move away from it. RMF FM's reporting presents his stance as a possible additional obstacle. Any deal on new revenue sources therefore depends on Warsaw as well as on the other member states.

Timing and the stakes

The European Council summit is scheduled for 15 and 16 October in Brussels, and no decisions on the ETS question have been taken yet. EU officials are reported to aim to close the talks before the start of 2027, when several key election campaigns begin across the continent. Gazeta Polska expects Poland to pay roughly as much into the EU as it receives in 2028-2034, after being the largest beneficiary of EU funds in 2021-2027, when about two-thirds went to cohesion funds and one third to agricultural support. Separately, the EU is weighing new safeguards for future members, including possible limits on their voting rights, with Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, North Macedonia and Armenia among the candidates.