New maximum fuel price caps

Poland's Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka issued a regulation setting new retail price ceilings across the country effective Tuesday, 6 October 2026. Under the third edition of the Ceny Paliwa Niżej (CPN) program, the maximum gross price for 95-octane petrol rises to 6.79 PLN per litre, representing a 6.29 PLN net rate. For 98-octane petrol, the maximum gross price reaches 7.66 PLN per litre (7.09 PLN net). Conversely, the ceiling for diesel fuel drops to 7.82 PLN per litre (7.24 PLN net), down from 7.88 PLN on Monday. Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) remains outside the price cap mechanism and did not receive tax cuts.

Motyka addressed the day-to-day rate fluctuations during an interview on Wirtualna Polska:

I think they will be very close to the current ones. These differences will literally be a few groszy over the coming days.

Windfall tax structure and funding

The price restrictions and temporary reductions in value-added tax and excise duty are funded through a 60% windfall tax on liquid fuel companies. The levy targets excess profits generated between 1 March 2026 and 31 March 2027 by domestic fuel producers and licensed international fuel traders. The taxable base is defined as revenue exceeding historical 2025 margins plus a 20% allowance, with a mandatory minimum reference margin of 2%. For non-refining trading entities, total tax liabilities are capped at 50% of net income or net profit.

The government projects the entire fuel support package to cost around 5 billion PLN through the end of 2026, though some official estimates place the ceiling at up to 10 billion PLN. Windfall tax revenues are expected to generate approximately 4 billion PLN for the state budget. Refiner Orlen indicated an estimated preliminary balance sheet burden of roughly 2 billion PLN. Unimot stated the tax does not apply to its trading-only operations, while MOL continues to assess its liabilities.

Program evolution and economic impact

The current intervention represents the third iteration of the CPN framework established earlier in 2026 to counter crude oil price pressures linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The initial edition operated between late March and 30 June 2026, followed by a second phase from 17 August to 31 August that omitted excise relief. The third phase, running through 31 December 2026, aims to curb forecourt costs while easing broader macroeconomic pressures. Calculations from the Ministry of Finance indicate the CPN program reduces average annual inflation by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.

Political reactions and legal status

President Karol Nawrocki signed the windfall tax legislation on 1 October 2026, enabling the immediate implementation of reduced indirect taxes. Nawrocki simultaneously referred the statute to the Constitutional Tribunal for post-enactment review. In wholesale trading, Orlen reduced its diesel wholesale rate from 7,280 PLN per cubic metre on Friday to 6,943 PLN on Saturday, prompting market analysts like Dawid Czopek of Polaris FIZ to anticipate lower consumer diesel costs. Opposition commentators cited Prime Minister Donald Tusk's earlier election campaign pledge promising petrol at 5.19 PLN per litre, criticising the gap between current regulated price limits and past political commitments.