Three steps from the border to the enemy's supply lines
Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich, a US general, presented NATO's 'theory of victory' at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday, 12 October. He described it as a plan for responding if Russia attacks a NATO member, a concept the alliance has worked on for several years before deciding to make it public after recent developments. The plan has three steps, which Grynkewich summed up in English as 'block, blunt and break'. In the first step, allied forces would immediately block an attack at the border so that the enemy cannot seize territory, with ground forces meant to dominate the advance and tie down its formations. In the second step, air, sea and land forces would strike advancing troops to take away the momentum of the attack, while air and naval forces working with space and cyber capabilities aim to gain superiority quickly. In the third step, if the attack continues, the enemy would be broken by striking supply routes, communication links, command networks and the rear areas that sustain its operations.
Lessons from Ukraine and the limits Grynkewich set
Grynkewich said the plan draws directly on lessons from the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and combines precision weapons with large numbers of autonomous systems such as drones. He stressed that NATO has no interest in conquering an adversary's territory and wants to limit its aim to the tactical and operational neutralisation of the opponent, so that it removes any pretext for escalation. He also said the alliance does not regard a military confrontation with Russia as imminent or inevitable. Der Tagesspiegel reports that neither Grynkewich nor European intelligence services assume an imminent Russian attack, although warnings point to the possibility within the coming years. The plan rests on the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area concept adopted by all 32 NATO states, according to Fakt. General Artur Jakubczyk, asked by Fakt to assess the plan, said:
This is exactly how actions should look in a clash with an opponent we see as an equal force.
Doubts over US commitment and a possible China scenario
Europeans increasingly doubt US support under Donald Trump, and the plan was published amid that debate. Der Tagesspiegel reports that Trump has repeatedly raised doubts about his support for NATO, a devastating signal given that the United States is by far the most important member. Asked whether the plan accounts for a scenario in which US forces are busy elsewhere during a European defence case, Grynkewich said it would certainly be taken into account and that nobody should question the US commitment to the alliance. Military planners see the possibility that China could use a Russian attack on a NATO country in Europe to act against Taiwan, which would require the US to reserve forces that could not then go to Europe. Grynkewich responded that deciding which forces deploy where is ultimately a political decision.
Critics and open questions
Philip Wasielewski, a former CIA officer and analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told PAP that the strategy may not be enough to deter Russia and could even encourage an attack. He said the speech did not clearly spell out the consequences for Russia itself, and that the stated aim of halting an attack rather than achieving the enemy's strategic defeat implies a war would mostly be fought on NATO territory. According to Wasielewski, the pledge to strike the forces and capabilities that support and command an aggression was not stressed enough, and it points to military targets rather than directly to Russia's arms industry, energy potential or political goals. He added that he was not criticising Grynkewich personally.
Kaliningrad and the hybrid threat
Il Giornale reports that Polish foreign minister Sikorski wants allies to decide in advance when Russian hybrid operations should count as an attack capable of provoking a collective response. Sabotage, cyberattacks, drones and disinformation form a hybrid war that can destabilise institutions and societies without becoming open conflict. Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave on the Baltic, is where distances are short and reaction times are reduced, and Moscow has already warned that any blockade of the region would be considered a very grave threat, raising the prospect of nuclear weapons. One account of the plan lists scenarios with strikes on military facilities and command posts in Kaliningrad, Belarus and near St Petersburg. France 24 frames the plan against Russian escalation in Ukraine following Trump's surprise announcement of an energy truce.