Demographic Pressure

The EU population is projected to peak at about 453.3 million in 2029 before sustained decline. On 13 October Chancellor Friedrich Merz said pension contributions might need to rise temporarily, while ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane said AI could partly offset the shrinking workforce.

Spain's Labour Route

Spain announced an immigration-law reform on 11 October to regularise tens of thousands of additional migrants each year, presenting migration as necessary for the workforce and pensions. Morocco's King Mohammed VI said on 9 October that the cooperation model has reached its limits. Spain votes on 29 November.

EU Summit and Restriction

Leaders met on 15–16 October on external borders, faster returns and sudden mass arrivals. Draft conclusions recognised the special situation of Ceuta and Melilla but kept the July influx from Morocco outside the migration section. The Return Regulation adopted on 1 October allows 24-month detention and third-country transfers.

In Portugal, PSD, CDS-PP and Chega bills to charge non-resident foreigners for health care went to a vote on 16 October. The test is whether they pass over PS opposition.