US weighs 'mother of all bombs' on Iran energy and nuclear sites

What the plans involve

CNN reported that US military planners have drawn up new attack options against Iran that include the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as MOAB or 'the mother of all bombs'. The targets named are energy infrastructure and nuclear sites, and the options would be weighed if Donald Trump orders new strikes either before or after the midterm elections on 3 November 2026. US sources familiar with the military plans, cited by CNN, said the choices could be considered on either side of the vote. CNN described it as the first use of the weapon in the Iran conflict, which would be a significant escalation.

Doubts over the weapon's effect

Several sources cited by CNN doubt that the bomb would meet the goals Trump has stated or change the balance of the war. One source said the weapon is useful for clearing large areas but not much more, and that it is not built as a deep-penetration warhead, a limitation that matters because the suspected nuclear sites are underground. Weight figures vary across reports: Adnkronos gives 9.7 tonnes, ANSA cites 11 tonnes in its headline and about 10 tonnes in its text, and LaSexta puts it at almost 10,000 kilograms with a blast wave spreading across 1.6 kilometres. Experts quoted by CNN warned that strikes on populated areas could cause heavy civilian casualties and an effect that would backfire on Washington, comparable to napalm in Vietnam. LaSexta adds that the bomb is carried by a C-130, released by parachute and guided by GPS to detonate just before it reaches the ground.

Trump's remarks and the state of the war

At a campaign rally in Montana, Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One that the war with Iran would end very soon, when he chose, and that Iran would never have nuclear weapons. In an earlier remark cited by LaSexta, he said the two sides were holding productive talks and that Iran would not be attacked before the midterms. ABC reports that diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, have been stalled since the summer. Washington has cut back military operations in recent weeks in favour of economic pressure, according to the same report. Polls cited by ABC show Trump's popularity is low and that the unpopular war, along with rising fuel prices, is hurting the Republican Party before the November elections. SIC reports that Benjamin Netanyahu is also pressing Trump to resume large-scale strikes, and that Israel holds elections on 27 October.

Shipping attacks and the 2017 precedent

Tanker attacks continue in the Strait of Hormuz, most recently in the Gulf of Oman, according to ANSA, which also reported that two container ships sank in the 24 hours before its report. The bomb has been used in combat only once, when SIC reports it struck an Islamic State tunnel complex in Afghanistan on 13 April 2017, less than two months after Trump entered the White House. Reported death tolls for that strike differ: about 40 according to ANSA, more than 90 according to ABC, and around 100 according to SIC. Officially, SIC notes, the 2017 strike caused no civilian deaths.