Dates and scope

NATO will hold its annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise in Italy, with 17 member states taking part. Reports differ on the start date: Reuters gives 13 October and RMF24 gives 12 October, while the drill is set to run until 23 October. Participation rotates among allies each year. Italy has hosted the exercise six times before, in 2010, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021 and 2023, and Adnkronos reports that this year's drill will take place at air bases in northern Italy.

What the drill involves

The exercise will range from simulated alarms to live flight exercises, according to David Bull, NATO's chief of nuclear operations, who said participation is similar to previous years. Dual-capable aircraft able to carry nuclear weapons will take part, alongside ground crews who will load, refuel and maintain the planes. The drill will be carried out without real nuclear weapons. Italy's Air Force General Staff says the exercise is planned in advance and is not tied to any specific crisis, and that its purpose is to verify procedures, coordination and safety standards among allied forces.

NATO's message to Moscow

NATO officials have stressed that the drill is predictable and routine. Nassima Barrows, NATO's director for nuclear policy, told reporters that the exercise is a clear signal to Russia.

We carry out these exercises every year and it is a clear signal to countries such as Russia that there is no reason for concern. These are predictable manoeuvres and there is no basis for miscalculation.

A senior NATO official said the alliance intends to keep calm and will keep trying to ease tensions, while accusing Russian officials of continuing to stoke the atmosphere. NATO also says it remains ready for dialogue.

Kaliningrad and the letter from Moscow

The exercise takes place against a backdrop of tension after NATO's manoeuvres near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in August. Moscow then sent NATO a letter threatening to strike allied territory and referring to its nuclear arsenal. In a document sent to NATO and seen by Reuters, Moscow accused the alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course" that entailed "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict". Russia has also warned it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the alliance tried to cut off Kaliningrad. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte criticised the wording of the letter last week. The Russian embassy in Belgium did not immediately respond to a request for comment. European countries accuse Russia of sabotage and of intensifying hybrid attacks across the continent.

Reaction in Italy

Leonardo Tricarico, former chief of staff of the Italian Air Force and now president of the Icsa Foundation, told Adnkronos that the drill appears intended as a warning to Putin about NATO's readiness. He questioned whether that was the right approach.

Everything suggests that the latter is the correct assessment, and there was certainly no need for it.

Tricarico argued that the alliance's communication line differs from that of its member states and was probably not agreed with allies. He added that consultation among members, which Article 4 of the treaty encourages, was evidently not followed.