Growth held up on AI spending
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a figure it presents as the world economy absorbs a run of shocks. The fund credits a wave of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which has supported the United States and Asian economies as well as the countries supplying the equipment. The expansion is narrow, with 32 countries now accounting for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 countries that contributed in April. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the world economy has held up well despite the flood of shocks, but that resilience is uneven and depends on how each country is hit by the war and the AI boom. The fund sees AI adding up to half a percentage point to global growth each year if productivity gains materialize.
Buffers are running down
At the Bangkok press conference, managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the resilience of the world economy is reaching its limit and that energy and fiscal buffers are running down. She pointed to persistent inflation, which is pushing up interest rates and adding pressure on the cost of servicing debt. Advanced economies are the most affected by the rising debt burden, she said, because many countries did not use the post-pandemic recovery to rebuild their fiscal reserves. She urged governments to repair public finances quickly by raising revenue, controlling spending and managing budgets better, while protecting vulnerable people with temporary, targeted support. Georgieva also warned that an AI bust would wipe 1% off global GDP, rising to 1.8% in the United States, a warning that came as stocks in global tech and semiconductor companies fell.
Energy shock and trade imbalances
Georgieva said the energy shock linked to the war in the Middle East is pushing the economy down, while demand tied to artificial intelligence offsets part of that pressure. The fund says the gap between countries is wide, with the most exposed being fragile economies outside the AI ecosystem that depend heavily on fuel imports. On imbalances, she called for China to spend more and shift from exports toward domestic consumption, for the United States to save more and reduce deficits, and for Europe to invest more and improve competitiveness. The IMF estimates that trade imbalances kept growing in 2025, by a volume equal to 0.7% of world GDP.
Europe's uneven recovery
Euro area growth is forecast at 1.1% for 2026, up from 0.9% in the July forecast, with the upgrade credited to AI investment and defence spending. Germany is set to accelerate to 1.3% after three difficult years, two of them recession. France sits at the bottom of the group at 0.4% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027, a outlook the fund links to summer climate events and political uncertainty. Italy is put at 0.6% and Switzerland at 1.2%, while the projections cited for the United States, China and India are 2.3%, 4.0% and 7.0%.
Spain's outlook before the November vote
The fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Spain by four tenths to 2.5%, more than double the euro area average, according to El Periodico. Growth then slows to 1.8% in 2027, the lowest pace since the pandemic rebound, according to El Mundo. Per capita growth is projected at 1.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, which would put Spain below the euro area average for the first time since that rebound. The fund also sees inflation at 3.7% and unemployment at 9.8%, almost four points above the euro area average. The next government, chosen at the general election on 29 November, will inherit this slowdown.