A late first hurricane

Isaias became the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season on Wednesday night, according to AP. Observador reports that it formed in the early hours of Thursday, 8 October, from a tropical disturbance in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It is the ninth named storm of the season and the first to reach hurricane strength, after eight earlier storms that never passed tropical storm intensity. Observador describes it as a Category 1 storm for now. Observador says the Atlantic had gone 342 days without a hurricane before Isaias, and that the last first hurricane this late in the year formed on 8 October 1905. AP says Isaias came one day shy of tying a 121-year-old record for the latest-forming initial hurricane of the Atlantic season, while Observador says it equals the 1905 mark, so the two outlets differ on that comparison. AP links the delay to the current super El Niño pattern, which stunted Atlantic formations through September while producing storms in the Pacific. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, put it this way:

It's the 'I' storm, which usually we have a lot earlier in the year.

Why the letter I worries forecasters

AP reports that 14 Atlantic storms with I names have been retired, 12 of them this century, out of 100 retired Atlantic names in total. F follows with 10 retired names, C with 9, and D and M with 8 each. Of the 55 costliest hurricanes to hit the United States, 12 began with the letter I, four of them in the top 10. Category 4 Ian in 2022 ranks third at $119.6 billion in damage, and AP says it wiped out whole neighborhoods in Florida and swept away beaches and homes. The pattern is why forecasters watch I storms closely, even when a particular forecast looks less dramatic.

Forecast for the Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center in Miami expects Isaias to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Observador reports that the storm is moving northeast at about 13 km/h toward the coast and has a high probability of strengthening to Category 2 before landfall. Forecasts call for storm surge up to 2.1 metres, rainfall of up to 180 mm in general and locally up to 250 mm, destructive gusts and possible tornadoes. Observador lists the greatest risks along the Mississippi coast, in Alabama and in northwest Florida. AP notes that the latest forecast appeared less dramatic than those for some other storms.

Alabama and the Gulf Coast's recent record

Dauphin Island, a 15-mile barrier island at the mouth of Mobile Bay, lies in the storm's path. Its mayor, Jeff Collier, said:

We just have to be prepared for the worst.

The New York Times notes that the last hurricane to make landfall in Alabama was Sally, a Category 2 storm that came ashore at Gulf Shores on 16 September 2020. The last hurricane to reach the mainland United States was Milton, a Category 3 storm that came ashore near Siesta Key, Florida, on 9 October 2024. Tropical Storms Bertha in July and Edouard in September both reached the northern Gulf Coast without gaining hurricane strength. France 24 interviewed meteorologist Albert Martinez, founder of Canal Meteo, about why Isaias formed so late and about the risks facing Florida.