Alberta votes on Monday, 19 October, on staying in Canada or starting a separation process

The vote on Monday

Albertans vote on Monday, 19 October, in a non-binding referendum that asks whether the western province should remain part of Canada or start the legal process for a future binding referendum on separation. The vote was initiated by Premier Danielle Smith after a judge halted a planned citizen referendum over constitutional concerns, according to N-tv. Smith announced the question in May, saying the time had come to hold a vote and understand the wishes of Albertans. The ballot also carries nine other non-binding questions on topics such as immigration, access to provincial services including education, social assistance and health care, and voter identification requirements.

What a yes vote would mean

A vote for the second option would not make Alberta an independent country. It would open the legal path to a later binding referendum, and any province that tried to secede would first have to negotiate with the federal government in Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples living in and around Alberta. Some separatist organisers have used that distinction to encourage people to vote for the referendum even if they do not want independence. Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, said strategic separatists have used that ambiguity to send Ottawa a message that Albertans need to be heard. He told Al Jazeera that the message may be resonating with some voters.

Polls and the separatist movement

The polls report different figures. SAPO cites surveys showing about 70% of residents want to stay in Canada, 20% back independence and 10% are undecided. El Mundo cites a survey in which about 70% have no wish to secede and 25% would want independence. Al Jazeera reports that four of five people in the province want Alberta to remain part of Canada. Cory Morgan, founder of the advocacy group Pathway to Independence, has campaigned for more than 25 years for Alberta to become independent and said he would accept the outcome of the vote.

I would respect the will of the voters. If they've decided it's not time to go that route yet, then so be it.

Morgan added that he would keep campaigning regardless of the result. Earlier this year, the Stay Free Alberta movement, led by Mitch Sylvestre, gathered more than 300,000 signatures in support of a separatist referendum, and SAPO reports that Smith had faced pressure from a small group of separatists to call one.

Federal and US reaction

Prime Minister Mark Carney urged supporters of Canadian unity to take part in the vote, writing on X that the outcome concerns the future of the country. Die Welt reports that Smith, Carney and both of the country's largest political parties have repeatedly spoken out against separation. The same report says support for the independence movement has come from the administration of US President Donald Trump. SAPO cites Alberta's population at about four million, while N-tv and Die Welt put it at about five million.

What happens next

The BBC expects the remain side to win the vote. Results will show whether a majority chooses to stay in Canada or to open the legal path toward a binding referendum. Even a majority for the second option would not create an immediate independent country, since the process would require a future binding vote and negotiations with Ottawa.