A straw poll with no clear front-runner
The Security Council held its sixth informal straw poll on Friday, 16 October, to narrow the field for the successor to António Guterres, whose second five-year term as secretary-general ends on 31 December. Diplomatic sources described the ballot as non-binding and anonymous. Each of the 15 council members marked every candidate as 'encourage', 'discourage' or 'no opinion', and none of the seven candidates escaped a negative mark from a permanent member, namely the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom.
For the first time, the five permanent members used red ballots while the ten elected members used white ones. Because the ballots were anonymous, the sources could not say which permanent member opposed which candidate.
Grynspan still ahead, with resistance
Rebeca Grynspan, the Costa Rican economist who headed the UN trade and development agency, UNCTAD, received nine encourage votes, the most of any candidate. She also received five discourage votes, two of them from permanent members, and one no-opinion mark. She has been ahead in four of the five polls held in recent months, while a poll in August placed Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett first. If chosen, Grynspan would be the first woman to lead the United Nations.
The chasing pack
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, a former foreign minister of Guyana who now serves as its UN ambassador, and Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, each won eight encourage votes. Both drew six discourage votes, two of them from permanent members. Olara Otunnu of Uganda, a former UN special representative for children and armed conflict, received four encourage and ten discourage votes. Macky Sall, a former president of Senegal, got five encouraging and ten discouraging marks. María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, a former foreign and defence minister, drew three encourage and nine discourage votes, while Ivonne A-Baki, an Ecuadorian diplomat, received one encourage and fourteen discourage votes.
Washington's expectations
Before the vote, the US permanent representative to the UN, Mike Waltz, said that countries may put forward more candidates, which he described as their sovereign right. He also set out Washington's priorities for the next secretary-general: reform of peacekeeping operations, budget reform and greater rigour. He called for less bureaucracy and lower overhead costs. US media reports cited in the coverage say Washington opposes all seven candidates.
What happens next
A candidate needs at least nine votes from the 15 council members and must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, which the sources say remain deeply divided. Once both conditions are met, the name goes to the General Assembly, where all UN member states confirm the choice. A diplomatic source recalled that Kofi Annan was not a candidate until a day before he was elected in 1996. Names now circulating include Lana Nusseibeh of the United Arab Emirates and Feridun Sinirlioglu of Turkey, though these remain speculation. Nikolai Mladenov, a Bulgarian who serves as High Representative for Gaza of the Peace Council set up by Donald Trump, has also been mentioned. The search takes place as the UN faces a multiplication of conflicts, persistent divisions on the Security Council and serious financial difficulties.