The reported phone calls

Axios, citing two US officials, an Israeli official and a fourth source familiar with the matter, reports that Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump discussed resuming large-scale military operations against Iran before elections in both countries. According to those sources, Netanyahu has held several calls with Trump over the past two weeks on that question, and one of them took place before Trump publicly said he would not strike Iran before the US midterms. The two leaders reportedly also weighed a possible joint Israeli-US operation against military and nuclear targets. Channel 12 and N12 published similar accounts, citing Israeli government sources and officials familiar with the talks.

Nuclear concerns and military readiness

Netanyahu reportedly raised intelligence suggesting Iran is taking worrying steps to rebuild its nuclear programme. Israel is especially concerned that Iran could use Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment site. Iran has also reportedly carried out ballistic missile tests from several bases in recent days, apparently in an attempt to rebuild its missile programme. Israeli security officials reportedly told Channel 12 that intelligence assessments have not shifted enough to justify a joint operation in the next two or three weeks. Still, the Israeli and US militaries remain on alert and are completing preparations in case Trump changes his mind. Israel's military chief, Eyal Zamir, reportedly discussed the possibility of resuming strikes within three weeks with his US counterpart, and according to N12 he warned that renewed hostilities before the vote could lead to its postponement.

Divisions inside the Trump administration

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the leadership of US Central Command are described as the strongest backers of resuming strikes, according to a source familiar with the discussions. Most of Trump's advisers reportedly prefer keeping economic sanctions and other forms of pressure for now, and one US official said that approach is working better and better. Axios reports that Trump initially seemed to lean toward renewed attacks but then grew more hesitant, and a US official described him as going back and forth on the issue. Trump's top cabinet members met for hours at Camp David on 2 October to discuss next steps in the war and the possibility of resuming strikes. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimates that the war has cost the average American family about 2,000 dollars, or 265 billion dollars nationally since it began in late February, with energy prices as the main driver of higher costs.

Denials and the election calendar

The White House called the report false and said the president has stated that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Netanyahu's office said the prime minister maintains regular contact with Trump and senior administration officials and does not comment on the content of their conversations. Israeli elections are scheduled for 27 October and US midterms for 3 November. Axios reports that renewed strikes could affect the Israeli vote through Iranian retaliation or a postponement of the election, and could remind US voters of rising fuel prices. Trump has not made a decision, according to Axios, and whether any strike comes before or after the two votes remains an open question.