Every outlet puts the Socialists first

The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) published its October barometer on Wednesday, 14 October, based on 5,025 interviews carried out between 1 and 6 October. Each outlet that covered it puts the Socialist Party (PSOE) first. La Vanguardia and eldiario.es report 34% for the PSOE, while El Mundo and La Razón give 34.5%. The institute is headed by José Félix Tezanos, a Socialist according to La Razón, and La Vanguardia describes it as dependent on the government. eldiario.es says the pre-campaign for the 29 November general election starts with the PSOE as the leading force.

The eviction, the decrees and the snap election

The poll is the first with a vote estimate after a chain of events that started with an eviction on 23 September, a date El Mundo gives. The person evicted was an elderly woman who died two weeks later in the hospital where she had been admitted, according to El Mundo, while eldiario.es gives the date of death as 7 October and notes that fieldwork was completed before it. Congress then rejected two housing decrees that the government had approved, and eldiario.es says the PP, Vox and Junts voted against them. Pedro Sánchez announced the early election on Monday, 5 October, and the decision was published in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) the next day.

Key dates before the 29 November election
  1. Eviction of an elderly woman, dated by El Mundo
  2. CIS fieldwork begins, running to 6 October
  3. Pedro Sánchez announces the early general election
  4. Early election decision published in the BOE
  5. General election date

Smaller parties and the left

La Vanguardia and eldiario.es put Vox at 17.1%, which eldiario.es describes as only about half a point above its September level. La Razón gives Vox 11.7%, which it says is 4.9 points below its September barometer figure. The left alliance, now called Frente Amplio after Sumar, stands at 6.1% in both La Vanguardia and eldiario.es, while Podemos falls to 3.1%, six tenths lower than in September according to eldiario.es. eldiario.es says the barometer lands in the middle of talks between Frente Amplio and Podemos on a single candidacy, with the deadline ending at midnight on Friday, 16 October. Among the territorial parties, ERC is at 3%, its best result of the legislature in a CIS poll, Junts is at 1.1%, and Bildu (1.6%) is ahead of the PNV (0.6%), with the BNG at 0.9%.

Where the figures do not match

The outlets diverge most on the People's Party (PP). La Vanguardia and eldiario.es give 22.2%, which La Vanguardia calls the second-worst result of the legislature in CIS polls, El Mundo gives 25.5%, and La Razón gives 29.2%. El Mundo's headline gap of 5.3 points does not match the 34.5% and 25.5% figures printed in its own text. eldiario.es says 25.5% was the PP's September figure, which fell to 22.2% in October, while El Mundo presents 25.5% as its October estimate, a gain of 3.7 points. The reported PSOE lead therefore runs from 5.3 points in El Mundo and La Razón to almost 12 points in La Vanguardia and 11.8 points in eldiario.es. La Vanguardia notes that its report is still being prepared and will be updated.