A warm spell before the change
Temperatures across much of Spain are running 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-October, according to AEMET, which forecasts 33 to 34 degrees in Sevilla and Badajoz on Wednesday 14 October. Ourense could pass 30 degrees, and Bilbao could reach 28. Showers are expected on the Murcia and Almería coasts on Wednesday 14 and Thursday 15 October, and some could be locally strong. A front on Friday 16 October is due to bring rain to the Cantabrian coast and the Pyrenees.
- Maxima of 33 to 34 degrees forecast in Sevilla and Badajoz, with showers forecast on the Murcia and Almería coasts
- Showers forecast again on the Murcia and Almería coasts; models expected to become more precise, per Jorge Rey
- Front brings rain to the Cantabrian coast and the Pyrenees, and cooling starts in Galicia and the Cantabrian region
- Instability increases, with showers and possible strong storms in the east and south, the Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Melilla
- Most worrying day: rain and storms more likely and potentially intense on the Valencia and Alicante coasts and in the Balearic Islands
What the forecasts say about the weekend
AEMET spokesman Rubén del Campo has warned of a sudden change in the weather, linked to a probable arrival of a DANA over the weekend, with a sharp drop in temperatures and intense rain possible in the Mediterranean area. El Mundo, citing the forecasting site eltiempo.es, reports that models place the depression forming between Saturday and Sunday and moving from northeast to southwest, although its path remains uncertain. The system would move against its usual direction, with cold air aloft and humid winds from the Mediterranean favouring rain. Jorge Rey, a science communicator who posts weather videos on YouTube, gave his own outlook in a video on his channel, saying:
The storms return to the Mediterranean at the weekend.
Rey points to Sunday 18 October as the key day and says models could become more precise from Thursday 15 October. AEMET's latest forecast warns of showers with probable strong or very strong storms in the east and south of the peninsula, the Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Melilla. The same forecast says maximum temperatures will fall notably or extraordinarily.
Where the rain could fall
Sunday 18 October is the day the forecasts single out as most worrying, with rain more likely and potentially intense along the Valencia and Alicante coasts. Some models show accumulations locally above 100 or even 200 litres per square metre in the most affected areas, but these are possible scenarios rather than a confirmed forecast for the whole Valencian Community. Rey places the strongest warning on the Balearic Islands for Sunday, with possible storms in some parts of Catalonia, without extending that to the whole region. In Andalusia, AEMET expects rain and storms to be more likely and intense in the eastern half on Saturday 17 and Sunday 18 October. Strong levante winds are also forecast for the eastern Mediterranean coast and the Cádiz coast, and Cádiz has a yellow warning for strong winds from 23:00 on Wednesday 14 October to 14:00 on Thursday 15 October.
Temperatures and the uncertainty
The cooling would also be sharp in Andalusia. A forecast published on 13 October has Sevilla dropping from 34 degrees on Wednesday 14 October to around 26 on Sunday 18 and Monday 19 October, while Córdoba falls from 31 on Wednesday to 23 on Monday 19 October. Granada's maximum is expected to reach 20 degrees in the final part of the weekend. Forecasters stress that the path of the DANA will decide both where the rain falls and how intense it is, and the scenarios could still shift as models update. Until the models offer more precision, the official AEMET forecast and its warnings remain the main reference.