Output quotas frozen for November

A core group of seven OPEC+ members agreed during a video conference on Sunday, 4 October 2026, to leave their oil production targets unchanged for November. The decision maintains the baseline established in September for a second consecutive month, following earlier steps that gradually unwound 3.85 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts adopted in 2023. Under the agreed allocations, Saudi Arabia maintains a required output target of 10.478 million barrels per day, while Russia's quota remains at 9.949 million barrels per day. Iraq is assigned a target of 4.431 million barrels per day, Kuwait 2.676 million, Kazakhstan 1.628 million, Algeria 1.007 million, and Oman 0.841 million.

Production deficit and shipping disruptions

Official output targets continue to exceed physical supply because military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has disrupted Gulf energy operations. Regional exports have operated between 60% and 80% of standard volumes. In August, the seven core producers pumped approximately 25 million barrels per day, representing a rise of 630,000 barrels per day from July but sitting roughly 5 million barrels per day below levels recorded in February before the conflict began. Total OPEC group output in August reached 24 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.46% over July but 15% lower than in January. Together with non-OPEC allies, total OPEC+ supply reached 38 million barrels per day, supplying 38% of global crude requirements. Maritime export routes remain constrained, with Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stating that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until seven conditions from a June interim agreement with the US are met. The UK Maritime Trade Operations also reported that a tanker came under fire in the strait.

UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo described the supply environment across the region.

Despite higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz, output levels remain far below quotas.

Strategic reserve releases and market reaction

Crude prices remained above $100 per barrel despite emergency policy measures from consuming countries. On Friday, 2 October 2026, the Group of Seven economies agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel reserves from strategic stockpiles over four months. Brent crude dropped to $98.72 per barrel on expectations of the G7 intervention before rising back to finish Friday at $102.25 per barrel. Commerzbank analysts noted that while Gulf export flows showed signs of increasing, regional security remains volatile. United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that market conditions will only shift substantially once the war with Iran concludes. High international crude costs continue to impact pump prices, with Netherlands fuel monitor UnitedConsumers reporting recommended diesel averages of 2.760 euros per litre and Euro95 petrol at 2.705 euros per litre.

Upcoming alliance meetings and 2027 planning

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee confirmed that member compliance for July and August was satisfactory, while warning that repairing damaged energy infrastructure is costly and time-consuming. The seven-nation sub-group will hold its next monthly online meeting on 1 November 2026 to review market developments and formulate December output policy. A full ministerial meeting of all 21 OPEC+ member countries is scheduled for late November (with dates given as 29 November and 30 November in alliance notices) to evaluate 2 million barrels per day in cuts established in late 2022. That gathering intends to establish updated production allocations starting on 1 January 2027, based on an ongoing member capacity audit that had faced delays during the regional conflict.