A mild weekend before the change
Saturday, 17 October is expected to stay mostly stable, mild and sunny across much of Italy, with maximum temperatures of 23 to 24°C on the rest of the peninsula, about 3 to 4°C above the seasonal average according to ilMeteo.it. Early fog is possible in the lower Po Valley and in central valleys, and isolated showers could reach Sicily in the afternoon and evening. Clouds are forecast to build over the northwest that evening, with the first showers expected in Piedmont and Liguria. Il Messaggero, citing Meteo Giuliacci, reports that Friday, 16 October was mostly clear and dry, and that the forecast picture will stay similar to that observed on Wednesday, 14 October and Thursday, 15 October, with temperatures still slightly above the seasonal average.
Rain returns to the northwest on Sunday, 18 October
Sunday, 18 October is the day on which the forecasts agree most, with rain and showers concentrated in the northwest over Valle d'Aosta, Piedmont and Liguria. Estimates of totals differ between sources. ANSA, citing Lorenzo Tedici, gives accumulations of 20 to 50 mm in 24 hours across Liguria, Piedmont and Valle d'Aosta, while La Repubblica forecasts up to 40 to 50 mm in 24 hours on Liguria, Tuscany and Piedmont. Later that day, rain is expected to extend to Lombardy, Emilia and the Lazio coast, while the rest of the country stays cloudy but mostly dry. Other forecasts do not rule out strong thunderstorms over the Ligurian riviera, and brief instability could reach the Ionian coasts of Calabria and Sicily.
Forecasters at ilMeteo.it described the change in their model runs in these words:
The numerical models show a trajectory positioned further east than expected at least 500 km compared with earlier updates of the American GFS model.
A cold drop that now stays further from Italy
The cold drop, which earlier models had placed squarely over Italy, is now expected to isolate over the Gulf of Lion between France and Spain. That track would keep the most unstable air mainly over the Tyrrhenian and Ligurian sides, where persistent southerly and Scirocco winds are expected to develop in the middle and lower layers. ilMeteo.it says the weather will therefore be far more localized than forecast a couple of days earlier. ANSA reports that the European ECMWF model points to a more easterly descent of the disturbance than other models, which track it toward Spain. Repubblica describes a disturbance from the North Sea that first moves west toward northern Spain, then turns east to open a humid corridor from the Atlantic to Italy.
Wider rain from Tuesday, 20 October
Monday, 19 October is expected to bring a partial improvement as the disturbance begins to move away from the northwest. Tuesday, 20 October and Wednesday, 21 October are the days forecasters expect a wider deterioration, with showers that could be intense from the north down to the Centre-South and the islands. Maximum temperatures are forecast to fall as the rain arrives, and Repubblica's forecast says temperatures will return to the seasonal climatological averages. Rain is expected to persist in places at least until Friday, 23 October.
- Mostly stable and mild, with fog possible in the Po Valley and first showers possible in Sicily and the northwest
- Rain and showers concentrated in the northwest, with strong thunderstorms possible on the Ligurian coast
- Wider deterioration from north to Centre-South and islands, with possibly intense showers and falling maximum temperatures
- Rain expected to persist in places until Friday
The sequence above is based on forecasts published on 16 and 17 October 2026, so the timing may still change.