Trump rules out strikes before the midterms
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, in a post on his social media account, that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November. The White House said the offensive against Iran was frozen and would not begin before the vote. The decision has helped cool energy markets and the price of Brent crude, while sanctions and the administration's hard line remain in place.
In the same post, Trump said Iran was in a very bad economic and military situation and that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remained in force. He said the United States was conducting productive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran, without giving details.
At a White House event, Trump said the conflict would end soon, one way or the other, and that fuel prices would fall sharply. He also argued that Iran lacks the means to fight, and said:
They don't have an army, they don't have a navy, they don't have an air force, they don't have anti-aircraft systems.
Pentagon planning and Iran's arsenal
Despite the public pledge, La Libre reported, citing several US officials who spoke anonymously, that the Pentagon is working on a large-scale bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic. The New York Times, cited by Deutsche Welle, reported that US forces were preparing options to restart large-scale combat operations and that three aircraft carriers would reach the Middle East. Officials cited by the Times said the Pentagon and the national security team had submitted five proposals for large-scale operations against Iran and the Houthis in Yemen over recent months, and that Trump vetoed each one.
Officials familiar with the matter said Iran has preserved its missile and drone factories despite months of US and Israeli bombing, which allows it to replenish its arsenals while Trump holds off on strikes. On the same Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States did not seek to build a new state in Iran or deploy large ground forces to control territory, as in Iraq more than twenty years ago. He said the main goal was to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Hegseth also announced that Nidal Hasan, who carried out the 2009 shooting at Fort Hood, will be executed by firing squad on 3 December, and that the execution will be streamed live.
Talks stalled over the Strait of Hormuz
Pezeshkian said on Monday that negotiating with Washington to end the war had 'no meaning', calling the United States an 'enemy that practices assassinations, sanctions, pressures every day, and does not keep its commitments'. On Friday, at a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Turkmenistan, he said dialogue could only succeed on the basis of mutual respect and reciprocal commitments, free of pressure and threats. He added:
A negotiation conducted under threat of force is not a negotiation.
He also said sanctions harm trade, energy and regional order. Talks have moved through several stages: a ceasefire in April, a protocol of understanding in June, and exchanges on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September. Officials from both sides met in New York in late September, before Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting US economic sanctions. Trump rejected that proposal but left the door open to indirect negotiations, without ruling out a resumption of strikes.
Washington has also imposed new sanctions on Iran's aviation sector. The United States has not struck Iran since 1 September, although ships are regularly targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
- US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin the war
- Ceasefire agreed
- Protocol of understanding signed
- Last US strikes on Iran, with none reported since this date
- US and Iranian officials meet in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly
- Trump says there will be no strikes on Iran before the midterms
- Pezeshkian rejects negotiations under the threat of force
Public opinion and fuel prices
About 60% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the situation in Iran, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, including one Republican in four. Voters name the cost of living as their main concern, and the war has pushed up fuel prices. Trump has said he expects fuel prices to fall after the elections, without explaining how. Reports of a planned strike campaign pushed crude prices up again, reversing part of the market calm that the pause had produced.