Burnham's assessment

Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Commons on Monday, 12 October, that the government's assessment is that the suspected plot against RAF Fairford, the Gloucestershire air base used by American bombers, was highly likely coordinated in Iran. He said it was almost certainly directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and his wording to MPs was direct:

I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Burnham added that "we will crack down on Iran's use of criminal networks" and bring further sanctions. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced the designation of two Iranian nationals, one named as head of counterespionage for the IRGC and the other a facilitator of plots against Iranian dissidents. The British government also summoned the Iranian ambassador on Monday, who reiterated that Tehran was not involved and urged the UK to provide evidence for its claims.

What police found

Police arrested five men near the base on 27 September, when scores of residents were evacuated from their homes as armed officers and army bomb-disposal experts swarmed the rural area. Police later said they found a quantity of gasoline, used as an accelerant, in three vans linked to the initial five suspects, but no explosives. Seven men have now been arrested in the investigation, and all are in their 20s. Police said six are British nationals and one holds dual UK-Iranian citizenship, and none has been publicly identified. All seven have been released on bail, and no one has been charged.

Iran's denial

Tehran denies any involvement. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned what it called baseless accusations, described the incident as a false flag operation, and held the British government responsible for all consequences. The ministry objected to the lack of concrete evidence and to the British use of the phrase highly likely, and it accused London of a record of fabricating security allegations against other nations. Iran has previously said it considers any base used to attack its territory a legitimate target, and the British government allowed the US military to use Fairford for what it called defensive strikes on Iranian missiles and their launch sites.

Joint condemnation from 29 countries

A joint statement published by Downing Street and the US State Department condemned Iran's use of violent attacks, including lethal plotting, arson, sabotage and cyber-attacks. The signatories said the Fairford incident demonstrates the IRGC's continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors. The statement cited a campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and US interests, claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), a group formed this year and considered to act on IRGC orders. Reports differ on the count of signatories, with Europa Press putting it at 30 including Spain and TVN and LaSexta counting 29. Italian agency Adnkronos listed Italy among the signatories, while TVN reported that Italy, Malta, Cyprus and Poland were not.

US bombers leave Fairford

US bombers were pulled from RAF Fairford in the week of 5 October, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) west of London, and the Pentagon said the aircraft had been redeployed to their home bases. The Trump administration said it believed the base faced Iranian threats intended to kill as many American troops and destroy as many US planes as possible. Burnham later told Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch that the government would keep working with its American counterparts on the base:

We will continue to work with our US counterparts on RAF Fairford.