Diplomatic proposals through Gulf mediators
Iranian officials announced that Tehran awaits an official United States response on 29 September 2026 regarding terms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect talks between both countries resumed in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, with Qatari and Pakistani diplomats acting as intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Qatari mediators shared initial ideas with Tehran and returned to present them to Washington. According to Araghchi, Iran's proposal initiates a seven-day countdown toward reopening the shipping channel alongside a pause in hostilities. Tehran maintains that any reopening requires Washington to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, which the US military has enforced since mid-July 2026.
The current focus is solely on the Strait of Hormuz, and reopening the strait depends on fulfilling certain conditions that we have conveyed to the other party.
- Conflict begins in the region and disrupts Strait of Hormuz tanker transit
- US military enforces a naval blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports
- Qatari mediators convey Iranian terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington
- Tehran awaits formal US reply as Trump denies offering sanctions relief
Sanctions dispute and election timeline
Negotiations face persistent disagreements over the scope of any pact. Iranian delegates want talks restricted to maritime access and port blockades, while a US official cited by Bloomberg insisted that no deal can occur without Iranian commitments on its nuclear program. Reports from Axios claiming that President Donald Trump offered to ease economic sanctions and release frozen assets in exchange for nuclear steps prompted a direct rejection from the White House. Trump dismissed the reporting on Truth Social as fabricated.
It is not true. I offered them nothing!
Iranian officials assess the probability of reaching a deal before the US congressional midterm elections on 3 November 2026 as low, expressing concern that conflict escalation could follow the vote.
Persian Gulf crude flows and market strain
Seven months after fighting began in late February 2026, commercial crude traffic through the Persian Gulf has partially recovered. Tanker tracking data from Kpler shows that daily flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10 million barrels per day in September 2026, while 6 million barrels per day moved through bypass pipelines and alternative ports. Total regional exports remain below the 19 million barrels per day moved prior to the conflict. Oil prices rose by 3% to exceed $107 per barrel on 28 September 2026, and US diesel prices climbed above $6.50 per gallon. The White House consulted with domestic refiners to evaluate alternatives to a short-term diesel export ban.
Military tensions and infrastructure threats
Regional security risks persist alongside the diplomatic exchanges. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded to Trump's United Nations address by threatening retaliatory actions against regional energy infrastructure if Iranian crude sales remain blocked.
In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one will sell oil.
On 28 September 2026, Iranian state television dismissed reports of military strikes near Qeshm Island, reporting that acoustic disturbances heard toward the sea were warning shots aimed at vessels violating maritime regulations.