Four years of costs for households and businesses

Confesercenti president Nico Gronchi presented the association's figures at its 2026 assembly in Rome. Four years of international tensions, energy shocks and inflation have cost the Italian economy almost 52 billion euros of real GDP, roughly 2,400 euros per household. Lower spending over the same period amounts to more than 34 billion euros. Since 2022, energy costs alone have taken over 30 billion euros out of consumption, and European Central Bank rate increases in 2026 have added 500 million euros in costs on variable-rate mortgages and loans. Gronchi put the energy gap in direct terms:

wholesale electricity in Italy costs over 40% more than in Germany, France and Spain.

Electricity and fuel prices

Confesercenti says wholesale electricity cost 57% more between January and September 2026, while gas more than doubled. Petrol has risen 28.6% and diesel 30% since the start of the year, and international energy prices are 90% above their level of a year earlier. The Centro Studi Confindustria reports that Italian electricity averaged 35% more than in Germany over the first nine months of 2026. The gap widened in September, when the price reached 207.5 euros per megawatt hour against 144.8 in Germany. Over January to September, the Italian price rose from 132.7 to 207.5 euros per megawatt hour. A separate measure puts the September peak at about 208 euros, up from 114 in February, before the war in the Middle East began.

Inflation and the central bank

Alessandro Fontana presented the October forecast report of the Centro Studi Confindustria in Rome. The report concludes:

The high cost of energy is Italy's most important vulnerability.

The energy share of production costs rose from 4.6% to 6.2% compared with 2019. Gas prices are at their highest since the end of 2022, driven by fears of scarcity and efforts to refill stocks, which are 10% below usual levels before winter. Gas trades around 77 euros per megawatt hour and oil at 102 dollars per barrel. With inflation at 4.2% in September, the ECB has already raised rates twice, and the report expects three more quarter-point increases. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 3.2% in 2026, against 1.5% in 2025, and 2.2% in 2027.

Growth outlook and its assumptions

The forecast puts GDP growth at 1% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. It rests on the assumption that the war between the United States and Iran is resolved after the US midterm elections, with a return to normal in the following months. The base case assumes Brent at 75 dollars and gas at 58 euros. With oil at 126 dollars, growth in 2027 would drop to zero. An unexpected fall in oil demand, mainly in China and Japan, has so far cushioned the impact. The report also notes that half of the fall in industrial emissions comes from closed factories.

Pressure on businesses and families

Businesses have absorbed much of the cost so far, as energy price increases have passed little into other goods and services, at the price of thinner margins. Gronchi said that tax and energy pressure keeps squeezing small and medium businesses and families. He proposed a tax cut on the 13th-month pay (tredicesime) and stabilizing energy costs. He also said targeted measures in the next budget law would ease the burden on companies. Those measures are expected to be decided in that budget law.