Warm start before the transition
Poland will experience mild autumn weather on Wednesday, 7 October, before an incoming low-pressure system alters conditions across Central Europe. According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), maximum daytime temperatures will reach 16 to 17 degrees Celsius in the north and the Sudeten valleys, around 20 degrees in central regions, and up to 23 degrees in the south. Morning fog will briefly reduce visibility to 200 metres in several regions before gradually lifting. Atmospheric pressure in Warsaw will measure 1004 hPa at noon, followed by a steady decline as low-pressure troughs advance from the Barents Sea and France. Mountainous areas will register strengthening winds, with evening gusts reaching up to 55 km/h in southern Silesia, 60 km/h in the Tatras and Sudetes, and 70 km/h in the Silesian and Żywiec Beskids.
Synopticians at IMGW projected the broader shift in European pressure systems:
Od czwartku nastąpi przebudowa pola barycznego: pogodę w Polsce będą kształtować układy niskiego ciśnienia wraz z przemieszczającymi się z zachodu na wschód frontami atmosferycznymi. Zrobi się pochmurno i deszczowo
Rising winds and peak temperatures on Thursday
Thursday will bring the warmest conditions of the week to southern districts alongside rising wind speeds generated by foehn winds known as halny. Forecasters project daytime highs between 16 degrees Celsius along the north-western coast and up to 25 degrees in southern Poland, while central regions will remain near 20 degrees. Cloud cover will thicken rapidly from the west as an active front moves inland, triggering scattered rain across western and central provinces alongside possible thunderstorms in the western Carpathians. Wind speeds will intensify significantly across higher elevations, generating gusts of up to 60 km/h in the south, 70 km/h along the Baltic coastline, and up to 90 km/h across Carpathian ridges. Overnight into Friday, precipitation will intensify, with localized rainfall totals projected to exceed 20 litres per square metre.
- Mild weather prevails with southern highs of 23°C and mountain gusts reaching 70 km/h.
- Southern highs reach 25°C as rain enters the west and Carpathian gusts hit 90 km/h.
- Cold front sweeps across Poland, reducing highs to 12-14°C with nationwide rain.
- Autumn pattern settles in with scattered showers and highs between 11°C and 18°C.
Cold front and sharp temperature drop on Friday
The primary cold front will sweep eastward across Poland on Friday, 9 October, replacing the warm maritime polar air with a cooler Atlantic airmass. Widespread rain showers will cover almost the entire country, with the most concentrated precipitation shifting to eastern districts. Maximum daytime temperatures will fall, settling between 12 and 14 degrees Celsius in most lowland areas, while submontane zones and the Podhale region will remain below 10 degrees. Gusty westerly winds ranging between 50 and 70 km/h will heighten the cooling effect throughout the day.
Weekend forecast and longer outlook
Autumn conditions will settle over Poland through Saturday and Sunday, characterized by persistent cloud cover, intermittent sunny spells, and scattered rain showers. Weekend daytime highs will range from 11 to 13 degrees Celsius in northern regions, while southern and central areas could experience a temporary rebound to between 15 and 18 degrees. Night-time temperatures will fall to between 5 and 10 degrees nationwide. Meteorological projections indicate that cool, wet, and windy conditions will persist into early next week before higher atmospheric pressure potentially brings sunnier conditions by mid-October.