Illa's PSC still leads but loses ground

The Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), the Generalitat's public opinion centre, presented its latest barometer on Wednesday, 14 October. Its 2,000 interviews were conducted between 1 September and 5 October according to most reports, although one outlet gives 21 September as the start of fieldwork. The PSC of Salvador Illa would finish first with 33 to 35 seats in the Parlament, down from 42 in 2024. ERC would rise from 20 seats to 24 to 26, while Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, would climb from 2 seats to 23 to 25, placing it close to ERC for second place.

Junts and the smaller parties

Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, would drop from 35 seats to 18 to 20 and fall to fourth place. The survey estimates that about 20% of those who voted Junts in the last Catalan election would now back Aliança Catalana. The PP would slip from 15 seats to 12 to 13, while Vox would rise from 11 to 12 to 13. Reports differ on the smallest groups: one puts the Comuns at 5 to 6 seats and the CUP at 4 to 5, while another keeps them at 6 and 4.

Majority arithmetic

PSC, ERC and the Comuns together would hold between 62 and 67 seats, short of the 68 needed for an absolute majority. ERC, Junts, the CUP and Aliança Catalana would total between 69 and 76 seats, enough on paper to pass that threshold. ERC and the CUP have rejected any pact with Aliança Catalana, and without its seats the independence bloc would fall to 51, a figure one account reports. The CEO director Joan Rodríguez qualified what the barometer can show.

It is not a pre-election barometer, although it gives estimates of the situation.

The fieldwork ended before Pedro Sánchez announced an early general election, so the figures do not capture that call or the alliances that followed.

General elections on 29 November

The general elections are scheduled for 29 November. For Congress, the CEO estimates PSC at 18 to 19 seats (19 in 2023), ERC at 10 to 11 (7 in 2023), Vox at 5 to 6 (2 currently) and PP at 6 to 7 (6 currently). Junts is put at 4 to 5 seats (7 currently) and Sumar at 2 to 3 (7 in the last general election). Aliança Catalana and the CUP have declined to run, according to reports. Negotiations on the left are not reflected, including a Frente Amplio that Ada Colau would lead and an ERC effort with Podemos under Gabriel Rufián.